The existence of Year 4, 5 licensing combined with Microsoft's statement that "we will honor Premium Assurance" is strong evidence. I would currently lean to yes. Premium Assurance servicing for NT 6.2/6.3 is likely real and will probably result in updates through roughly 2029, but whether those updates become publicly visible in the same way as NT 6.0/6.1 remains uncertain.
Is hard tell because was something in informations about Server 2012/2012 R2 will end life in October 2026. And wasn't informations if Microsoft here give like was to server2008 / Vista, Server 2008R2 / 7 with 3 years bonuses.
Yea some things still remain unknown and Microsoft might have learnt a thing or two from Premium Assurance for NT6.1/6.0 They could restrict distribution through WSUS and Azure only though I don't really see why they would do that.
You might be mixing a few things together for point 1 Microsoft's program to buy Premium Assurance was introduced back around 2016-2017 but Updates related to Premium Assurance in itself aren't due yet for NT6.3/6.2 Right now it is still ESU and everyone has access to those Updates because it's the official program and Microsoft puts them on the Microsoft Catalog. Premium Assurance Updates, that "normally" are only intended for companies that bought said extension might also become available publicly after the official ESU program ends in October 2026. Premium Assurance for NT 6.1/6.0 could also be bought in 2016-2017 but Updates were only released starting in 2024 and lasted until January 2026 Something like this is possible because of legacy clauses and policies (that Microsoft seems to honor) where old rules and contracts (2016-2017) continue to apply to an existing situation while new rules and contracts apply thereafter (ESU 2017+) So we can be thankful to the companies that purchased Premium Assurance back in the day for making this even possible
Thanks for the clarification I got confused because it was unknown to me that PA updates actually begin after a product's ESU period. When you mentioned this, I do think it is possible that Microsoft can continue PA for Windows Server 2012 and R2, but we can't be certain because Microsoft really has all their attention on modernization as of now.