They added licenses for 2 more years actually, so the real EOL will be between October 2028 and January 2029
Also, this is the ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI manifest pulled out by me straight from the latest May update: <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"?> <assembly xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:asm.v3" manifestVersion="1.0" copyright="Copyright (c) Microsoft Corporation. All Rights Reserved."> <assemblyIdentity name="Microsoft-Windows-SLC-Component-ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI" version="6.3.9600.23181" processorArchitecture="amd64" language="neutral" buildType="release" publicKeyToken="31bf3856ad364e35" versionScope="nonSxS" /> <ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:asm.v3" ActiveLicenses="Server-ESU-Year3;" ExtendedSecurityUpdates="0x02;" SKUs="0x07;0x08;0x0C;0x0D;0x24;0x25;0x27;0x28;" arguments=" " /> <ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:asm.v3" ActiveLicenses="Server-ESU-Year4;" ExtendedSecurityUpdates="0x02;" SKUs="0x07;0x08;0x0C;0x0D;0x24;0x25;0x27;0x28;" arguments=" " /> <ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:asm.v3" ActiveLicenses="Server-ESU-Year5;" ExtendedSecurityUpdates="0x02;" SKUs="0x07;0x08;0x0C;0x0D;0x24;0x25;0x27;0x28;" arguments=" " /> <ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:asm.v3" ActiveLicenses="Server-FES-ESU-Year3;" ExtendedSecurityUpdates="0x02;" SKUs="0x07;0x08;" arguments=" " /> <ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:asm.v3" ActiveLicenses="Server-FES-ESU-Year4;" ExtendedSecurityUpdates="0x02;" SKUs="0x07;0x08;" arguments=" " /> <ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:asm.v3" ActiveLicenses="Server-FES-ESU-Year5;" ExtendedSecurityUpdates="0x02;" SKUs="0x07;0x08;" arguments=" " /> <ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:asm.v3" ActiveLicenses="Server-FES-ESU-Year3;" ExtendedSecurityUpdates="0x22;" SKUs="0x07;0x08;" arguments=" " /> <ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:asm.v3" ActiveLicenses="Server-FES-ESU-Year4;" ExtendedSecurityUpdates="0x22;" SKUs="0x07;0x08;" arguments=" " /> <ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:asm.v3" ActiveLicenses="Server-FES-ESU-Year5;" ExtendedSecurityUpdates="0x22;" SKUs="0x07;0x08;" arguments=" " /> <ExtendedSecurityUpdatesAI xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:asm.v3" ActiveLicenses=";" ExtendedSecurityUpdates="0x31;" SKUs="0x07;0x08;0x0C;0x0D;0x24;0x25;0x27;0x28;" arguments=" " /> </assembly> As you can see, it includes Year4 and Year5 licenses.
But added license’s doesn’t guarantee Microsoft will produce the updates, just that they have paved the way..
The additional ESU licenses can indicate the total possible amount of years of support. But I agree that it does not guarantee that Microsoft will make use of them. Some Windows 10 versions also have ESU licenses for up to 6 years but the ESU program will only be for 3 years.