Coronavirus | Discussion

Discussion in 'Serious Discussion' started by Deleted member 1254778, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. gorski

    gorski MDL Guru

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    But Yen, no scientist worth his/her salt deals in absolutes, hence qualifications. Everywhere - at least when there are studies of this sort to be found - with so many variables, all of which one can't control.

    Your presumption/request/implication that this is somehow "unexpected" or even "unacceptable" is therefore null and void!
     
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  2. gorski

    gorski MDL Guru

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    Btw, a million in the USofA, a third of a million in France... What to do with the national health system in each country? Each and every one of them is being starved of resources (neoliberal austerity) and staff are leaving or absent through sickness - who's gonna do the job?!? MrX, Yen, vladnil - WHO?!?

    And strategically, on the world level, what do we go globally, because this is not possible to isolate from...???
     
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  3. Yen

    Yen Admin
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    #3763 Yen, Jan 12, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2022
    It's about that such studies with lots of 'might be' are taken for granted and then used to REASON vaccination of kids.
    They do not follow a general procedure to replace 'might be' with 'are' or 'they do'. They push relatives to absolutes (and associations to causality) ONLY when it supports the mentioned narratives.

    You would never find a replacement of 'might be useful' to 'it is' at interpretations of IVM studies.

    People are not aware how deeply degenerated and dangerous the whole vaccine story already has become. It's out of control.
    There are constantly changes at dose / frequency and duration and people who are eligible WITHOUT to have scientific data followup that would scientifically reason those changes!!!!

    The vaccines aren't scientifically accompanied as they should and as we are used to have. They are in the hands of capitalists and political decision makers!
    Already at shot 3 we were in no-man's-land. The studies at kids also. NORMALLY there MUST be a proper dose-finding study!!!

    Did you know that the original endpoint of Phase III studies has been canceled? There is no control group anymore!

    I am familiar with complete developments of drugs.
    From day one where I synthesized 'my baby' from a designed molecule on paper the very first time and this substance has seen the light of the day the very first time on earth on my lab-bench as a crystalline solid....to the first administration to humans in a clinical trial..through all phases...until it either died (because of less efficacy and/or less safety).....or we could sell the patents...or we did a cooperation...

    What's going on with the vaccines is ethically and morally wrong!

    There is another simple sign:
    Have you noticed that it absolutely does NOT matter which COVID vaccine one is taking (neither kind of nor which variant against)? The only intention is to get as many people as possible vaccinated and with as many shots as possible.!!!

    So tell me: Is this OK? Do you know a doctor who is diagnosing something but does NOT care about which medication is useful / up to date (from a pharmacological aspect) for the individual?
    Do you know a doctor who is self-determining dose plans which are not backuped by studies?

    3rd shot = no study followup data!!!! The 'study' is actually the insanely Pfizer live mass vaccination in Israel up to 4th jab.
    shot for kids = without dose-finding study. They simply determined a dose out of the wild!
    4th jab = LOL
    5th jab = LOL

    Those people do violate the Nürnberg Code and we have conditions that we actually NEVER wanted to have again....

    People must know that they take highly potent and new pharmaceuticals without to have the established and commonly applied backup from science anymore.

    This applies to the kid's vaccines and to 3rd shot onward.
    I could cry seeing what's going on all over the world...a complete delusion and misguidance.
     
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  4. gorski

    gorski MDL Guru

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    #3764 gorski, Jan 12, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2022
    Ermmm, that's a different timber now, Yen....

    On the one hand, the whole point of GOOD science in regard of such phenomena is that these were always going to be relative statements and criticising them for being so simply does not hold water! The only ground for criticising them for being qualified - is unscientific!

    And on the other hand, as for what SOME journalists do - that's another matter and we agree there, of course. But this is a case of bad journalism of the "simple-mind interpretation" kind and the two should be mindfully pulled apart and signified as such...

    Not making a serious distinction could be seen as inflammatory!

    On the issue of not being ready to conduct proper studies, having an "intuitive" method of setting a dosage for various groups and so on - of course I agree there!

    But you know, you've come a long way from somebody who wouldn't empathise with Thalidomide victims, to this stance which is diametrically opposite to what you claimed back then. I welcome it. My worry is - would be able to revert to the old stance again, when it suited you...?
     
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  5. gorski

    gorski MDL Guru

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    Btw, could you elaborate on this please:

    "Did you know that the original endpoint of Phase III studies has been canceled? There is no control group anymore!"

    And the decision making process always was and should be in politicians' hands. The problem is - is the process democratically validated, transparent, is there accountability, do these guys have legitimacy and their decisions appropriate legality?!?

    We doubt that very much and we must change the procedures and laws governing these issues, to be prepared for the next one... In this sorry episode private firms got contracts without any let alone a valid tender ("chumocracy"), no real scrutiny was present, many people, especially in the medical profession and frontline services have paid either with their lives or with their health (no PPE!!!) and that must not be acceptable to anyone!
     
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  6. Palladin

    Palladin MDL Senior Member

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  7. Mr.X

    Mr.X MDL Guru

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  8. R29k

    R29k MDL GLaDOS

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  9. Yen

    Yen Admin
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    #3769 Yen, Jan 13, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2022
    It's not about reversion. No worries.:)

    The pandemic is a current event. I can be and I get informed every day. The Thalidomide story I only got via retrospective. AND the most important fact is: The Thalidomide scandal led to a total new idea of drug safety and pharmacovigilance.
    Many historical achievements are based on utter mistakes and then a learning process of humankind. The same applies to the NAZI doctors and the Nürnberg Code.

    So the only difference concerning my 'opinion' about Thalidomide / new vaccines is that I'd say science could not know about the potential danger of Thalidomide in advance considering the current methods of drug safety THAT time.
    But I also blame Grünenthal for capitalistic recklessness and I do have empathy for the victims, I know one personally...
    And it's again a German company involved, BioNTech.

    The study which is the very base of the Pfizer vaccine and by which it has got EUA in many countries is this one: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577
    "Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine"

    I suppose you know what a RCT is so no further explanation. It is randomized, placebo controlled and triple-blinded. Each group was about 21,000 (control/Placebo and treatment group), we know that.
    You have to declare in advance which endpoints you have.
    So one point of the the study design originally has been to declare to END it on May 2023!
    At this date there is the option to un-blind and to offer the intervention for those people belonging to the placebo arm if they consent.

    It has started on July 2020. Until then they wanted to continue and collect data of BOTH groups (Control and treatment group).

    What they really did:
    On 31/12/2020 Pfizer released a 2 months data report. The trial is unblinded early!!!!

    The participants from the Placebo Group are given the opportunity to take the vaccine and by early 2021, the majority of them have crossed over to the vaccination group.

    Since then it’s no longer a randomized control trial, the control group is gone.
    Therefore you won't get any 'long term' safety data from a real RCT/real RCT conditions which is scientific evidence level I!

    To recognize issues you of course need to compare to control.
    The EUA of the Pfizer vaccine is based on 2 months of follow-up safety data ONLY!!!!
    THIS study was supposed to be FIRST to show up any 'long' term issues (exactly issues occurred from July 2020 till May 2023) since those participants were ahead of the masses and could deliver such at all. The pre-alarming system so to say is gone.

    Now the Israelis are the guinea pigs since those are which are ahead.
    But the conditions there are of course not those we have at a real RCT (no evidence level I) !!! And due to the high vaccination rate there there's actually no control group either.
     
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  10. gorski

    gorski MDL Guru

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  11. Yen

    Yen Admin
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    Thanks for that, very interesting...BTW here's the link to the scientific paper: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jnatprod.1c00946
    It covers exactly the work we did for COVID research....to check the behavior of extracts / fractions / compounds of plants on the virus / viral replication.
    This is exciting...

    Malone reminds me somehow of my old boss.
    I like and respect both. A very clear minded and well trained academic. Prudent and with the ability to reflect things from different perspectives.
    Would be a good workmate....
     
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  12. gorski

    gorski MDL Guru

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    Did I mention that a number of experts were on radio talking about "not being sure Omicron is milder"?

    What constitutes "milder", they'd ask.? Is 10% milder, 15%? How much milder is really milder?

    EU agency: vaccines effective against Omicron
    By EUobserver

    https://euobserver.com/tickers/154059?

    Data suggests that vaccines remain effective against severe disease and hospitalisation caused by the Omicron variant, the European Medicine Agency (EMA) said on Tuesday. It adds that those with a booster dose are better protected. EMA also said hospitalisations linked to Omicron appeared to be lower than with previous variants, since "the risk is currently estimated to be between a third and half of the risk with the Delta variant".

    So, things are not yet clear-cut, it would seem... Too many people still getting hospitalised and dying - too many to call this a "victory" or that "the danger has passed"...
     
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  13. Yen

    Yen Admin
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    #3773 Yen, Jan 13, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2022
    I did that job for you finding 2 current origins of data:
    The Netherlands, source of it: https://t.co/TJ6peBST2I
    PDF page 18

    [​IMG]

    The coloured graphs are estimations (applying different models / scenarios) of numbers of occupied intensive care beds.
    The black one the real number.
    The black = real graph follows Omicron estimations which are conform to mine....it EVEN declines.

    Edit: Since the graph stops at mid of December recent number: 13/1/2022
    358. It has even more declined!
    Source: Official LCPS data: https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/intensive-care-opnames

    2nd
    California data:

    Omicron:
    Delta:
    Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1

    Look at SA: Omicron wave is almost over, same data.
    So IF one still has a rational mind one has to recognize Omicron is mild per se.

    Only irrational minds still are fear driven unsure.
     
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  14. gorski

    gorski MDL Guru

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    We have a baseline, I guess, before the Omicron wave...

    Bulgaria
    Apr 20th 2020-Dec 26th 2021
    30,530
    60,140
    872
    Russia
    Apr 1st 2020-Dec 31st 2021
    302,650
    1,082,710
    742
    Serbia
    Apr 1st 2020-Nov 30th 2021
    11,680
    48,710
    709
    North Macedonia
    Apr 1st 2020-Oct 31st 2021
    7,120
    13,740
    660
    Peru
    Mar 23rd 2020-Jan 2nd 2022
    202,750
    207,480
    622
    Lithuania
    May 25th 2020-Dec 19th 2021
    7,070
    16,550
    615
    Bosnia and Herzegovina
    Apr 1st 2020-Sep 30th 2021
    10,590
    16,800
    515
    Romania
    Mar 30th 2020-Oct 31st 2021
    47,710
    94,750
    495
    Mexico
    Mar 30th 2020-Nov 14th 2021
    286,800
    605,850
    465
    Kazakhstan
    Jun 1st 2020-Oct 31st 2021
    17,040
    79,070
    416
    Poland
    Mar 30th 2020-Dec 12th 2021
    88,460
    155,240
    411
    Latvia
    Oct 19th 2020-Dec 12th 2021
    4,330
    7,440
    399
    South Africa
    Apr 13th 2020-Jan 2nd 2022
    91,200
    239,060
    398
     
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  15. Mr.X

    Mr.X MDL Guru

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    #3775 Mr.X, Jan 13, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2022
  16. Yen

    Yen Admin
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  17. spanishfly

    spanishfly MDL Senior Member

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    #3777 spanishfly, Jan 13, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2022
    I have some confusion from this website https://covariants.org/.
    I thought that the covid "soup" in which we are swimming contains many ingredients old and new.
    I think I figured it out....
    https://forums.mydigitallife.net/threads/coronavirus-discussion.81224/page-189#post-1717073
    Meaning there are percentages of all the different flavours of VOCs: Alpha, Beta, Delta, Omicron plus all sorts of random mutations that don't have a Greek letter.
    But from what I interpret from the website is the new VOC strains move into a population and "out-compete" or dominate the old VOCs.
    So many questions ....
    What happens to the old VOCs? Why do they die out?
    If your immune system has never had exposure to any of the prior batch of VOCs and you are exposed today, then all you are dealing with is Omicron?
    I hope this is a fresh question....

    Reason for the confusion - I thought that the soup was more complex...
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.19.21262139v2
    Vaccinated people incubate mutated variants
    • Fully vaccinated were more likely than unvaccinated persons to be infected by variants carrying mutations associated with decreased antibody neutralization
    • (78% versus 48%), but not by those associated with increased infectivity (85% versus 77%).
    • So if a mutation is highly infectious, then being vaccinated/unvaccinated are both likely to get infected.
    viral loads the same
    • Differences in viral loads were non-significant between unvaccinated and fully vaccinated persons overall (p = 0.99) and according to lineage.
    • symptomatic vaccine breakthrough infections had similar viral loads to unvaccinated infections.
    No surprise
    Viral loads were significantly higher in symptomatic as compared to asymptomatic vaccine breakthrough cases​
    vaccine breakthrough infections
    vaccine breakthrough infections were found to be associated with low or undetectable neutralizing antibody levels attributable to​
    • □ immunocompromised state or
    • □ infection by an antibody-resistant lineage.
    Conclusion
    • These findings suggest that vaccine breakthrough cases are preferentially caused by circulating antibody-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants, and
    • that symptomatic breakthrough infections may potentially transmit COVID-19 as efficiently as unvaccinated infections, regardless of the infecting lineage.

    Graph: [​IMG]
     
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  18. gorski

    gorski MDL Guru

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    I said, Yen, we have a baseline (of sorts, of course - but you know what I mean - we'll see if it is "milder" and according to you it should be soon!)... SA started with Omicron awareness, so...

    Indeed, spanishfly, many experts I read and listened to warned that Delta is very much still about, hence the vaccinations are still very useful...
     
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  19. spanishfly

    spanishfly MDL Senior Member

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    #3779 spanishfly, Jan 14, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2022
    The website https://covariants.org/ shows that Delta is gone or going away. Maybe if you're in Central/Eastern Europe you might get some vaccine protection from Delta . . . for another few weeks.
    See: https://covariants.org/per-variant
    [​IMG]

    For most countries, Omicron is taking over all the others.
    [​IMG]
    That's what was confusing me, but I think I've worked it out now....



    My working it out ... (possibly over-simplified) . . .

    • A VOC is a designated mutation novel or semi-novel to the vaccinated/unvaccinated human immune system.
    • As the vaccinated/unvaccinated human herd develops an effective immune response to the earlier VOCs they are slowly eliminated as a threat and die-out.
    • If a new VOC isn't already in the pipeline then the human herd gets temporary "virus vacation".
    • Since this is a spiked-protein virus, the gap between VOCs might be a year+ . . . if we're lucky.
    • But we're not lucky since the human herd is huge! (in 2020: 7,794,798,739 humans).
    Once we know the Covid 19 VOC rate or vaccine breakthrough cases rate some statistician can work it out.
    Code:
    VOC rate (times) [7,794,798,739 total humans (minus) protected humans aka the 1% with the wealth (times) fudge factor] (equals) how long between wide-spread VOC mutations
    Right now, wide-spread VOC mutations are showing up a rapid rate (every 6 months?).
    This could be totally normal. Maybe this every six-month "VOC rate" is what the human herd needs to adapt to.
    But maybe the rapid rate is made worse by the fact that vaccinated people are variant incubation machines!! https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.19.21262139v2
    Maybe not. South Africa, said to be the Omicron VOC source, doesn't have a super-high vaccination rate.
    If science was actually being done right now, we could possibly figure it out.
     

    Attached Files:

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  20. gorski

    gorski MDL Guru

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    Yen kept insisting - inspired by some other guys - that this isn't a pandemic, that the numbers are too low, much lower than flu etc. etc.

    So, if it isn't killing too many, there is - theoretically speaking - aplenty of subjects (Humans and animals) to infect and survive...

    Today I went shopping and even though masks, distancing etc. is mandatory - there were too many people who couldn't care less about the measures....

    Our legal optimists thought, in their eternal "wisdom", if we bring about a law prohibiting various types of behaviour - that such a behaviour will vanish...

    There was a little flaw in such thinking: given low numbers of police about, who was to enforce it everywhere, in all aspects of life in public? Security staff in a supermarket are not paid to do that, they have no authority, there are very few of them and they are not trained, not equipped to do these things and to put themselves in harm's way... Who then? Members of the public? Ahem...

    And in that irrationality lies the basis for the variety of strains to co-exist, it seems to me...
     
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