What's worrying is that when I relate to what one or two professors are saying about what's currently going on you come up with belief systems, 'gurus' and leaders.... You never have enough freedom in your mind that you could objectively recognize that current politics on corona could be far off! You do not make the efforts to evaluate if the objections can be valid. For instance: When I posted about error rate: 0.5% 600000 tests per week (BTW it's already double again we -Germany- have 1.2 million ATM) 600000/week you have already around 400 false results each day. Related to 1500 positives each day it means 400 of them are uncertain. And political measures are related to that. I'd expect from you to disqualify that arguing or to think about it. Saying it comes from gurus or leader..I mean what's the point of that arguing? Either it is true or not. The entire COVID-19 testing is actually based on a scientific mess. The PCR test's results and all the political measures that are related to it come from a PCR test that even has no approval for diagnostics. Not even until now. It is for lab use only. To have a valid and reasonable scientific diagnostic on an illness you need far more than a PCR test that is made for lab use only. You need symptoms, a verification and a physician who clearly makes a diagnosis: This individual sufferers from the sickness COVID-19! I would not be surprised if there will be a lawsuit against the testing in the near future. I never have denied that individual reactions on COVID-19 can come up with life-threatening symptoms. I also have responsibility for my own life/health and my family and I am no that stupid that I would downplay the potential danger of the COVID-19 pandemia. I already posted that nobody can know in advance how the individual reactions on COVID-19 will be if an infection should take place one day. Anyway the idea on it relies always on a personal imagination of the sickness. You can try to make best prediction as possible but that is all. Everyone of us categorizes certain sicknesses personally. How else can it be? When you consult different physicians because you want help/advice you do not get one answer alone.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...accine-hold-us-spinal-cord-disease-fears/amp/ What a liar, what a shameless corporation Astrazeneca is.
Actually, I am the one thinking with my own brain, based on evidence and compassion!!! You are the afflicted one in this case, sorry @Yen....
https://twitter.com/EckerleIsabella/status/1305493680577540102 Isabella Eckerle @EckerleIsabella This is among many reasons why I have decided that I do not want this virus, and that I will do everything possible to protect myself & my family from a #SARSCoV2 infection & #Covid19 We should not take this lightheartedly, even the seemingly “mild” infections. Quote Tweet Nature News & Comment @NatureNews · Sep 14 Months after infection with SARS-CoV-2, some people are still battling crushing fatigue, lung damage and other symptoms of ‘long COVID’. http://nature.com/articles/d41586-0...nnc&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=naturenews
At least I can be grateful that I have enough sensitivity to differentiate the complex matter COVID-19 pandemia in its fine details....and are only worried about there where real worries are justified. The pandemia does not only concern the virus and infection by it....it also concerns unreasonable fear based on hair-raising methods. The PCR test is not even standardized. And depending which lab you consult different methods to obtain a PCR result are applied. A test is not negative or positive per se. - You need to define a threshold (Ct value) and each country has its own. - The resulted Ct value which is used to apply the threshold varies depending on the PCR method which is applied by the particular lab. -The test says nothing about of being virulent. It only says that virus RNA could be detected. German: https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/09/01/covid-19-zu-viele-positiv-getestete-harmlos/#gsc.tab=0 Current methods to determine the 'state' of the pandemia are a hit in the face for every serious scientist. Every scientist who does not claim for a change in strategy concerning methods to determine the state of the pandemia is irresponsible. Thank god more and more raise their voice for a change in strategy. Even Mr. Drosten is in the club.
I bet those who get it and suffer from it do not need anyone's help to detect where it "really hurts", where "real problems" are....
This morning's radio shows in the UK (BBC Radio 4 and LBC) are full of scientists questioning gov's interpretation of data. Some are thinking it is an "over-reaction" (Spain and France taken as a case in point, rather that Germany and Italy, they say - as if they have a monopoly on interpreting the data and absolute knowledge, so they can pontificate like that) but most are concerned that the measures are half-arsed and therefore won't be effective as to the proclaimed goals. Sterner stuff awaits, they fear.... Facts: R is close to 2 and reducing the number of guests at weddings etc. (from 30 to 15, no visiting between households, just recommended working from home if possible etc.) just won't cut it... Gov says, despite problems with "testing system", as they wrongly call it (it's "test, trace and isolate system"!), that it's not just the increase in testing but also the proportion of tests that came positive, triggering new measures, hence the alarm! Btw, they do not mention this but we also have increased knowledge of what the virus does even to the very young, also grown-ups in their prime, the so called long Covid, many types of damage, even to the brain tissue which limits a person from going back to its previous job, many months later and so on - this obviously is informing gov's decision making process, as is right and proper, alas the information service, the education part of the gov propaganda machine is NOT drumming this into people's consciousness and that is a STRATEGIC FAILURE!!!! Reduced death rate from Covid is due to improved test, trace and isolate system, as well as knowledge of treatment but that does not mean that C-19 is any less virulent... Some signs of panic buying again, as a result, restaurants and pubs are up in arms, bleating about their income but not asking for gov help - oh, no, they want to keep working regardless of everything, and forgetting what we are fighting, like little children... A madhouse... Gov had to bring in - because there are tons of people like that - stronger punishment and even the Army will be deployed if necessary, as a "background force", as in "helping the police do what they do".... That of course, points to severe cuts in Police force, due to the now obviously failed ideology and related propaganda of "austerity"... Troubled times ahead, yet again...
i am really tempted to quote good ole joe goebbels on propaganda... [very relevant nearly 90 years later..] i know it has no place in a civilized environment, so i resist the temptation. but it looks like the beep took a leaf from that book.
Hmmm the R value was 1.1-1.4 last Friday. Cannot imagine that it is now already close to 2. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#history
Even then - when the R was "deemed to be around 1.2" (gov) - there were different studies done, so you are not well informed. One of them was putting it at 1.7. Imperial College: https://inews.co.uk/news/health/r-r...irus-number-value-cases-latest-figures-643123 ! It's seriously strange, I must say, that you of all people are now quibbling with the fact there are different understandings of the "facts", since it is precisely you of late who is insisting that precisely those who are "different" from the majority, in this case, must be listened to.... Very weird, I must say.... And it has nothing to do with "imagining". Today new cases jumped to 6.5 K and 3 days ago they were at 3K. And now the most important thing in understanding this high figure, as CONTEXT IS EVERYTHING: this is despite not having freely available testing to all who need it, thanx to gov failure. Some must go over 300 miles to get tested, only to be turned away at the door... It's a disaster in the making and yet...
No, it's not because of lack of freely available tests! I have said testing and catching data is a scientific mess. It hurts so much! The test is not validated and not standardized and has no approval for diagnostics! You have to relate positives to amount of tests and voila you would not have that jumps from 3K to 6K back and forth! And yes it's all about understanding this figure and understanding that the test is too sensitive, says nothing about being virulent and gives the impression that things are getting worse again. And yes this impression is pure imagination! It's in fact 'ambient noise' which has been unreasonably and unscientifically amplified. I know a family. Their daughter had to deliver a negative test in order to go back to residential school. The test must not be older than 48h. It was negative and so they planed to get their daughter there by car. In the meantime the school changed their idea. She had to do another corona test. During first school day her mum got a call, her daughter is positive. She had to go and take back her daughter....quarantine. Her mum thought that cannot be at all. Did PCR test next day..negative.... two days more the 4th test..also negative... BUT she remains ever as being a corona positive in the stats and in fact she never were COVID-19 affected at all. And the authorities said: "The positive test is the right one the negatives are wrong, she cannot leave quarantine!" This is deprivation of liberty! Such cases happen every day 1000 nds all over the world. But they never get uncovered since one positive is enough to be counted as COVID-19 affected. And when you later get negative they say you are recovered. You cannot recover from something you have not suffered from! It can be highly probable that one never had to deal with COVID-19, the sickness....... it's due to an over sensitive test. (maybe you just have inhaled some virus RNA that time.....but that is all.).. What a mess!!! >ct30 means you are positive in Germany! France >Ct40 But both are by far to low! aha.... The one I posted from govt site is not right. The higher one always is.....you seem to follow the same 'logic' as the authority did saying three negatives are wrong , but the one positive is right.. no there's no imagination at all..
No, you really do NOT get it! Gov is trying to "balance" wealth and health and it is doing it in a manner which is favouring the Tory party big donors. So, on 10th Sept they "decide" it's 1.1 but Imperial modelling said it's probably 1.7 if not higher. A few days later gov has to act in a manner compatible with the Imperial's model - so yes, the higher one was right and your "new understanding" of things in this case is dead wrong! That's why we have the worst record of all comparable EU countries and that's why they are criticised as doing too little too late. Compare that with much poorer countries which did well and cringe.... It didn't have to be so bad, so many lives lost, so many lives ruined!!! So, no, you do not understand the context of GB at all. (The same goes for USofA etc.) Then, you do not understand how "scientific thinking, based in statistics" directly and in an unmediated manner "translated" into Public Health Policy - affects not just health but also lives of people. It RUINS other people's lives and/or health!!! I noticed you are ignoring everything of the kind, which doesn't fit your new mantra, based on other people's understanding of what maketh a pandemic by coldly looking at the numbers and almost autistically failing to see reality behind it. They (very few but loud scientists of that sort) would "let it all hang out" and you would follow them blindly based on looking at numbers, instead of Human lives... The worst part of it all is that you pat yourself on the back as to how "sensitive" you are to... well, numbers.... and only numbers... (Arghhh!!!!) Well, I rest my case... P.S. A little edit... Here is a snippet of REAL REALITY: about a third of UK nurses are getting ready to quit the NHS, they are so burnt out! And the UK is already seriously short in that department. Why? They have seen so much death and lost colleagues who did not have the PPE and so on and - they just can't go on. They started not coming to work - emotionally spent and on the edge! And your Public Health Policy would put them and the whole of NHS in a seriously dangerous situation which would be impossible to manage! Well done, Yen! Sit down - you FAILED!!!
Btw, who said all tests are 100000% accurate all the time? Who are you quarrelling with here? It's not deprivation of liberty if one is stopped from infecting other people, as a principle! We are talking about duty to others here. You really do not understand the ABC! Liberty does not mean ability and right to do whatever one wants whenever one wants it and take it as far as one wants to, FCOL!!! I would be the first to introduce checks and balances into all the procedures and with all the public bodies deciding our lives ATM: make public and transparent all the decision making processes, TV cameras being in the gov and committees' chambers when they are deliberating etc. But it would change nothing, as the logic of the thing itself would take us roughly in the same direction, only with more stringent measures, albeit with more safeguards, so that girl's case would not happen easily!!! That still does not mean that people who are not in control of themselves (the immature, the emotionally disturbed, criminals, sociopaths etc. etc.) but who nevertheless want to go on as before can do so! It seems to me you are doing these inappropriate "comparisons" by deliberately IGNORING the fact that many people are seriously affected by the virus! I have no idea how you can square that with your conscience,,,,
6634 cases today in the UK, the worst since the crisis began and many people can't get a test done. Worse than when it forced the gov to enact the lock-down.... And they are not going into lock-down... Perhaps you can begin seeing how I understand it a bit better than you do - the context and so on?
We talking about something dat By Itself has ONLY killed around 10000 people on de USA according to de CDC Now in Dipolog City, a City of 150000 +/- people in a Geographic Area of over 1 Million, 8 active cases caused de Boulevard and Beaches 2b closed and a BAN on alcohol sales AGAIN Can't forget de friggin Face Shields Maybe Bat should be happy him can't get a Passport or Visa
You are probably right here. Since you live there it is fine you are being informed about. The same applies to me. I try to be informed about the situation here in Germany and its context. Many things are just different. And having a look at R in GB the lockdown helped, here in Germany not anymore since it was already down below 1 and remained there during it and after... It are NOT only numbers. I posted about that little girl who has been sent to quarantine for nothing. An individual case I know... Check bellow the second last quote here from you....numbers. We all use the 'numbers'.... I don't have failed. Many people and groups of people with a certain job to handle corona affected people are exhausted due to the crisis, it IS a crisis for humanity. There are also people who are suffering from it without being infected. (Have lost their job, perspective, income....) I understood it quite well. I did not generalize. I posted about one case. And each one that is in quarantine which is never virulent though is there for nothing. I claim a better way of testing to get them recognized as such! Here are they...numbers again. We both use them. You take them for granted, I have objections due to test methods. Why is it bad that they can't get a test done? It's our very own behaviour that -with evidence- is most effective to fight against corona. Social distancing, washing hands..staying at home when having symptoms that match those of corona....home-office...and and.... Not me. 100%-sensitivity = error rate on negatives 100%-specifity = error rate on positives. I assumed 0.5% and calculated well that it gets a relative of 400 out of 1500 per day, means 26% are uncertain each day (at 600000 testings a week)... And what is that difficult to understand that when you can detect already a very little trace of virus RNA, a statement about the real potential to get infected becomes questionable? I try to get an image of the situation here. The same you do for GB. Finally we try to categorize the potential danger for us and our family and 'the people'... The same 'issue' we have even the experts and politicians have.....it is a very complex matter and we are in the same boat...
You don't see wood for the trees! They are rising SIGNIFICANTLY and exponentially, FCOL, how can you not see this? And if you implement your gurus' recommendations - OUCH!!!!! Individual cases you use are only to help your case - all else you do not see, you have a methodical blind spot for it! And you are systematically evading talking about anything where you would have to acknowledge your new perspective does not give a damn about everybody who is suffering seriously badly (health, not losing a job - but losing a life!
a low-tech solution.. at least they have no batteries, gorski https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-53254200